The leaders of six Western Balkan countries—Serbia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Albania, Kosovo, and Bosnia and Herzegovina—gathered in Brussels on December 18th for their annual summit with EU officials.
For the first time in years, there’s genuine hope that some of these nations could achieve EU membership by the decade’s end, aligning with the expiration of the current European Commission’s mandate.
In 2020, the EU revamped the accession process, introducing thematic clusters of reforms as prerequisites for negotiations. While this provided clarity, it initially slowed progress. However, 2023 has seen a marked acceleration, with EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos expressing optimism: “We have a realistic prospect to bring one or more enlargement countries to the finish line during this Commission’s mandate.”
Montenegro and Albania have emerged as frontrunners. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama described the negotiations as “neurotic,” but both nations are optimistic about concluding membership talks within the decade.
Geopolitical Context Driving Enlargement
The urgency to expand stems from shifting global dynamics, including the Ukraine war and Middle East conflicts. The EU views a stable and integrated Western Balkans as essential to its geopolitical strategy. Additionally, Hungary’s Council presidency has played a pivotal role. Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó declared, “More has happened in the past two months than in the last 15 years.” Even skeptics like Socialist MEP Nacho Sánchez Amor admitted Budapest’s efforts have reinvigorated the process.
Serbia’s Stalled Progress
While many Balkan nations are advancing, Serbia’s accession faces hurdles. Its refusal to impose sanctions on Russia and perceived democratic backsliding under President Aleksandar Vučić have strained relations with Brussels. Some EU officials hope Serbia’s liberal opposition will gain power in the 2027 elections, easing these tensions. Regardless, Serbia’s strategic importance—especially in combating illegal migration—makes its inclusion in the EU essential.
Looking East: Ukraine’s Accession
As the Western Balkans inch closer to membership, the focus will shift eastward in 2024. Poland’s upcoming Council presidency is expected to prioritize Ukraine’s accession, contingent on developments in the war and potential ceasefire agreements.
With renewed dynamism and geopolitical necessity driving enlargement, the EU appears more committed than ever to integrating the Western Balkans into its fold. However, significant challenges remain, particularly in aligning political realities with the bloc’s strategic goals.
