As superbugs continue to spread worldwide, the looming antibiotic crisis is set to double death rates from antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in the next quarter-century, warns Dame Sally Davies, former Chief Medical Officer for England. She emphasizes the gravity of the situation, urging immediate global action to prevent devastating consequences for people of all ages.
Davies, a vocal advocate for combating AMR, shared her concerns with the Observer, stressing the threat posed to routine medical procedures. “About a million people die every year because of the spread of microbial resistance, and that figure will rise over the next 25 years,” she said. “It is really scary.”
According to projections, by 2050, AMR-related death rates are expected to double, with nearly 40 million lives lost over the next 25 years, disproportionately affecting the elderly. “Recent data shows AMR is going down in the under-fives, which is good news. For the over-70s, mortality rates have gone up 80% since 1990; that is very concerning.”
With an aging population and more people living with chronic illnesses, the threat of AMR becomes even more pressing. While doctors have worked to limit unnecessary antibiotic prescriptions, misuse is not the sole contributor to resistance. A significant issue arises from the agricultural sector, where approximately 70% of antibiotics are used in livestock farming. “We’re essentially throwing antibiotics at cows and chickens and sheep as cheap alternatives to giving them growth promoters or prophylactics to prevent the spread of disease,” Davies said. This widespread use of antibiotics in animals fosters the evolution of resistant bacteria, which can then spread globally.
“If you’ve got intensive farming where a lot of antibiotics are used or a busy hospital that has a poor sewage system, resistant bacteria can get into waterways,” added Davies. “Winds blow over these patches of contaminated land or water and pick up bacteria and genes with resistance in them, then let them rain down in other places. That is how pernicious this problem has become.”
The spread of AMR is largely due to the rapid multiplication and mutation of bacteria. “Bacteria take about 20 minutes to multiply. They also mutate a great deal, and if they do so in the presence of antibiotics and that mutation protects them, these strains will multiply. Crucially they can pass that on to any bacteria with which they make contact,” said Davies.
As AMR spreads with alarming ease, the urgency to avoid overuse of current antibiotics intensifies. Additionally, new antibiotics must be developed—a challenge due to economic incentives. “We’ve had no new classes of antibiotics come into routine use since the late 80s and the market model that would promote the creation of new ones is broken. If you develop a new antibiotic, it might be used by someone for a weekly course once a year. Where’s the profit in that?”
“By contrast, blood pressure drugs that have to be taken every day, or cancer drugs that have to be administered for months, offer pharmaceuticals far greater profits. So there is no incentive for them to try to develop new antibiotics. It is a real headache.”
Despite these challenges, Davies remains hopeful, urging world leaders to act swiftly. The G7 has acknowledged the growing crisis, but she stresses that further action is needed to address the problem with the urgency it demands.
