Israel must gear up for a possible confrontation with Turkey and its proxies, according to a government-commissioned report presented on January 6.
This document, crafted by the Nagel Committee—a group of security experts led by ex-National Security Council chief Jacob Nagel—calls for a fundamental shift in Israel’s defense strategy to address emerging regional threats.
While Iran has long been Israel’s primary adversary, the report identifies Turkey as an increasingly significant threat. It warns that Turkish ambitions to restore Ottoman-era influence could escalate regional tensions, especially through Ankara’s support of proxies in Syria. “The threat from Syria could evolve into something even more dangerous than the Iranian threat,” the report notes, highlighting the destabilizing role of Turkish-backed forces.
To counter this growing threat, the report urges a shift in Israel’s defense priorities, advocating a more offensive posture. It recommends reallocating resources to focus 70% on attack capabilities and 30% on defense. According to The Jerusalem Post, this would mark a major strategic pivot for Israel’s military establishment.
Financially, the report proposes boosting the defense budget by an additional 9-15 billion New Israeli Shekels (NIS) annually ($2.48-$4.13 billion) over the next five years, with further increases tapering off after 2030. For 2025, this would mean an 8% rise, bringing the total defense budget to NIS 123 billion ($33.9 billion)—still short of what the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) requested last year.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has voiced strong support for these recommendations, describing the report as a blueprint for securing Israel’s future. “We are witnessing fundamental changes in the Middle East. Iran has long been our greatest threat, but new forces are entering the arena, and we must be prepared for the unexpected,” Netanyahu remarked.
Defense Minister Israel Katz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich also received the report, which outlines a comprehensive geopolitical strategy to address Turkey and other regional threats.
The potential clash between Israel and Turkey poses a diplomatic challenge, particularly for the United States. Both countries are traditional U.S. allies, but Turkey’s NATO membership adds complexity to the situation, as Israel is not part of the alliance. Balancing these conflicting alliances could present a thorny dilemma for the incoming U.S. administration.
As Turkey pursues its ambitions and regional dynamics shift, the report underscores the urgency for Israel to recalibrate its defense strategy, ensuring it stays one step ahead in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
