The Russian-Ukrainian conflict has intensified the East-West divide and sparked discussions about the potential for a new Cold War. Beyond Ukraine, the global political landscape is rife with hotspots. Let’s take a look at which countries may grow closer this year.
Russia, China, and India: Charting Their Own Course
Talk of a new Cold War is on the rise, with some experts, including Richard Sakwa, a former professor of Russian and European politics at the University of Kent, suggesting that it’s already underway. Sakwa argues that in the short term, the best hope is a truce, driven by the exhaustion of Western resources. However, Ukraine’s reluctance to compromise could make this impossible. Regardless, the world isn’t returning to the old East-West blocs, and the idea of a non-aligned middle ground seems increasingly unrealistic. The dream of a unified continent from Lisbon to Vladivostok has given way to war fatigue and shifting alliances between political centers. Many countries are forging both temporary and permanent alliances to navigate this complex landscape.
Meanwhile, nations like Russia, China, and India are steadily asserting their independence. This challenges the notion that history is unidirectional and that the world must align with the “advanced” Western model. Notably, Russia and China are drawing closer to Iran and North Korea, strengthening their military ties with autocratic regimes. Additionally, the BRICS group, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, South Africa, the UAE, Iran, Egypt, and Ethiopia, is evolving into a significant economic force. This coalition aims to challenge the dominance of the US dollar in global trade.
The US and NATO: Seeking Solutions Amidst Global Challenges
The US is reinforcing NATO and forging new security partnerships in Asia, while working to bring European and Asian allies closer together. There’s even been discussion about expanding the G7 to include nations from the Indo-Pacific. However, with the possible return of Donald Trump to the presidency, these alliances could face setbacks. His administration might withdraw from the Paris Agreement, UNESCO, and the UN Human Rights Commission, much like it did during his first term. Additionally, Trump may revisit attempts to strengthen ties with Muslim and Catholic nations, potentially weakening international commitments to women’s rights.
At the UN, Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has emphasized that “global problems require global solutions,” highlighting issues like conflicts, inequality, the climate crisis, and the threats posed by emerging technologies. However, practical solutions to these crises remain elusive. Guterres’ statements about growing conflicts and widespread human rights violations seem more like a rote mantra than a call to action, reflecting the UN’s struggle with the ongoing crisis in international law.
Shifting Alliances: Russia, Israel, and Taiwan
International cooperation within the UN presents some curious dynamics. Russia enjoys solid support from Belarus, North Korea, and Syria, while Israel benefits from US protection through its Security Council veto, alongside support from various Pacific island nations. Taiwan’s situation is more complicated: though it’s recognized by just 12 countries, including Tuvalu, Eswatini, and Haiti, experts predict that China’s increasing influence could significantly reduce this number in the near future.
The Emergence of a New Global Order
Over the last decade or so, no major issue of European or global security has been resolved. Current conflicts continue to bring both social and infrastructural damage while shifting the geopolitical balance. A new bipolar world order is starting to take shape, with a multipolar system at the state level and two dominant blocs at the top. The extent of diplomatic relations between countries will depend on various factors, with security remaining a central issue in these evolving alliances.
