US envoy to announce peace strategy next weekend, which could include using British troops to enforce a ceasefire.
The US is expected to unveil its plan to end the war in Ukraine next week, which could involve freezing the conflict along the current lines and using British troops to enforce a ceasefire.
Donald Trump made ending the war one of his main pledges during the election campaign, previously insisting that it could be done in 24 hours.
That, of course, did not happen, with Gen Keith Kellogg, the special envoy for Ukraine, later conceding that achieving peace would be more complicated and could take 100 days.
Nearly a month into Mr Trump’s second term, Gen Kellogg will next week present a plan to end the war privately to America’s allies at the Munich security conference, being held from Friday to Sunday, Feb 14-16.
What’s in the plan?
A key element of Gen Kellogg’s plan is freezing the conflict along current lines, Bloomberg reported.
Russia has been making steady gains along Ukraine’s eastern front, though at an increasing cost.
Moscow has already suffered 50,000 casualties this year, according to the British Ministry of Defence.
Freezing the conflict along current lines would mean that Russia would retain control of around 20 per cent of Ukraine, mainly in the southeastern region of Donetsk.
This had been expected to become a sticking point, with Kyiv previously insisting that it would continue to fight Russia until Ukraine was returned to its internationally recognised borders.
However, Volodymyr Zelensky admitted for the first time in November that he was willing to cede territory to Russia to end the war.
The Ukrainian president told Sky News: “If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under [the] Nato umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control.”
In return for freezing the conflict along current lines, Gen Kellogg’s plan involves providing Ukraine with security guarantees to ensure that Moscow does not attack again.
Gen Kellogg is a known advocate for ramping up military aid for Ukraine if Moscow refuses to come to the table.
It is not clear exactly what other security guarantees would be given to Ukraine. The country has long demanded Nato membership and, failing that, being allowed to possess nuclear weapons.
Another aspect of Gen Kellogg’s deal reportedly involves holding elections in Ukraine, preferably by the end of the year, especially if a ceasefire comes into effect.
Elections are currently barred from being held in Ukraine during martial law. Had Russia not invaded, Mr Zelensky’s term would have ended on May 20 2024.
Mr Zelensky said he was willing to hold elections after the war.
A third element behind Gen Kellogg’s plan involves Ukraine’s rare earths and critical minerals, which Mr Trump said on Monday the US wanted in return for continued military support.
Kyiv had reportedly already negotiated a critical minerals agreement with the Biden administration, which was designed to allow the US to benefit from Ukraine’s lucrative natural resource pool.
But the deal was delayed so that Mr Trump could claim a win, sources told The New York Times, something Mr Zelensky was happy to do.
Ukraine’s European allies, including Britain, Poland and France, have discussed sending troops to Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire.
Mr Zelensky said that such a plan could only work with American troops, saying that at least 200,000 soldiers would be needed to enforce peace and that Europe alone was not reliable enough.
The troops would likely have to be positioned along an 800-mile buffer zone, along what is currently the war’s front lines in eastern Ukraine.
Mr Trump, whose foreign policy hinges on removing the US from global conflicts, is unlikely to agree to sending American troops to enforce any ceasefire.
The US also looks poised to reject Ukraine’s call for nuclear weapons.
Kyiv agreed to give Russia its nuclear weapons in 1994 in exchange for reassurances that its independence would be respected.
Mr Zelensky said the agreement was violated with Russia’s invasion and so has demanded Ukraine be allowed to go nuclear once again.
Gen Kellogg immediately poured cold water on the idea.
He told Fox News: “The chance of them getting their nuclear weapons back is somewhere between slim and none.”
On Nato, though, Mr Trump’s administration has remained tight-lipped.
“That’s one of the reasons I’m going next week to Europe, to actually see them face to face,” Gen Kellogg said when asked about Ukraine joining Nato.
“I can bring that back to the president and say, ‘OK, Mr President, this is their concern. This is what the issues are’.”
There is also no guarantee that Moscow will want to end the war along current lines.
Vladimir Putin’s troops are advancing, albeit slowly, while draining Ukrainian resources and morale.
Moscow has also made no secret of the fact that it would like to replace Mr Zelensky with its own chosen candidate.
Russia wanted to install Viktor Medvedchuk, as Ukrainian president in an ultimatum offered to Mr Zelensky during the first phase of the war.
Moscow may then refuse to accept any election scenario that involves Mr Zelensky running for office once again.
Could there be another Trump surprise?
Mr Trump’s shock-and-awe foreign policy is in full swing, so there is no guarantee on what will and will not form part of his plan to end the war.
Earlier this week, he shocked the world by suggesting that Palestinians could be permanently displaced from Gaza, which he promised to transform into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.
He has also made no secret about his desire to “take” Greenland, a semi-independent, mineral-rich territory in the Arctic.
So Mr Trump could throw in a surprise with this deal too.
Could he reverse ferret and allow Ukraine to build nuclear weapons?
Or could they be given a guarantee to join Nato, despite opposition by senior figures such as JD Vance, the vice president?
