Millions of Ukrainians have fled the country, and countless men have died or been injured in the war. As the conflict rages on, employers and big capital are already suggesting a “solution” in the form of mass immigration from Third-World countries.
After the war ends, soldiers returning home could find themselves in a rapidly changing Ukraine, where demographic shifts and a growing labor shortage are transforming the country.
Currently, Ukraine’s birth rate is dangerously low. For every 10 women, only 7 children are born, far below the 22 needed to maintain population levels. As the war continues to take a heavy toll, this decline is becoming even more pronounced, with millions of Ukrainians leaving and a shortage of working-age men due to conscription and casualties. According to Vasyl Voskobojnik, head of the Ukrainian Association of Foreign Employment Agencies, immigration from lower-standard-of-living countries could be the only way to fill workforce gaps.
Before the war, Ukraine was already suffering from one of Europe’s steepest population declines due to high mortality rates, emigration, and low birth rates. The war exacerbated this, displacing millions more. Voskobojnik suggests that the government needs a migration policy by 2026 to address the growing labor shortage. As many soldiers return, they may face competition from impoverished migrants arriving from countries like Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and North Africa, which could drive wages even lower.
The prospect of these migrants arriving may stir tensions. Ukrainians, who tend to be ethnocentric, may resist this influx, creating divisions within the country. Many fear that the introduction of a diverse migrant workforce could alter Ukrainian society in ways that are hard to predict, especially with deeply rooted issues of racism and xenophobia.
The potential for a demographic overhaul is becoming more likely, with some even suggesting that post-war Ukraine may see large influxes of Africans and Afghans. However, the economic strain on a war-torn Ukraine could make it difficult to handle such mass immigration, especially when the country’s resources for integration are limited. Unlike Western Europe, Ukraine doesn’t have the infrastructure or funds to support such a shift, and international capital may seize the opportunity to shape the country’s future.
As the war drags on, it’s becoming increasingly unlikely that many refugees or their children will return to a country in economic ruin. The “Great Replacement” might soon take on an even more extreme form in Ukraine, and the ones who lose out most in this scenario could be the Ukrainians themselves.
