If Ukraine and Russia reach a ceasefire or peace deal, millions of Ukrainian refugees living in Central Europe could face major changes in their legal status and access to essential services.
For the first time since the war began in February 2022, U.S. and Russian officials sat down in Saudi Arabia on February 18th to discuss the potential for ending the conflict. With 4.3 million Ukrainians currently under temporary protection in the EU—1.2 million in Germany, 990,000 in Poland, and 390,000 in the Czech Republic—the outcome of these talks could reshape their futures.
Czech Interior Minister Vít Rakušan made it clear that once a ceasefire or peace deal is in place, Ukrainian refugees will lose their temporary protection. That means no more free healthcare, education, or automatic work rights. However, they won’t be forced out immediately—they’ll have time to apply for temporary residence under new laws designed to help long-term refugees stay, provided they have stable jobs, housing, and children enrolled in Czech schools.
Polish businesses, on the other hand, are worried about the economic fallout of refugees returning home. Many industries—hotels, restaurants, logistics, and care services—rely heavily on Ukrainian workers. Kamil Sobolewski, chief economist at Employers of Poland, warned that a mass exodus of workers would hit the country hard. The construction and transportation sectors, largely staffed by Ukrainian men, would be particularly vulnerable.
Despite these concerns, data from the Polish Economic Institute suggests only 21% of Ukrainian refugees plan to stay in Poland permanently.
Kyiv is well aware of its labor crisis. Not only is Ukraine struggling with troop shortages, but its economy is also starved of skilled workers. The government recently launched “unity hubs” in host countries to help connect Ukrainians abroad with opportunities back home.
Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Chernyshov has even hinted that some returnees might be exempt from military service, a move aimed at reassuring those hesitant to come back.
Even if a ceasefire is reached, it remains to be seen whether Ukrainians in Europe will feel confident enough to return. After years of war, many have built new lives abroad. The decision to go back won’t be simple—especially if long-term peace remains uncertain.
