Obesity rates worldwide are climbing at an alarming pace, with new research projecting that by 2050, six in 10 adults and nearly a third of children and young people will be overweight or obese. The findings, published in The Lancet, highlight a growing health crisis that poses an “unparalleled threat” to global well-being.
According to the study, 3.8 billion adults and 746 million young people are expected to be overweight or obese by mid-century—up from 731 million adults and 198 million young people in 1990. Generational data reveal that individuals are gaining weight faster and at younger ages. For instance, in high-income countries, the proportion of men classified as obese by age 25 has risen from 7% for those born in the 1960s to 16% for those born in the 1990s, with projections reaching 25% for those born in 2015.
“The unprecedented global epidemic of overweight and obesity is a profound tragedy and a monumental societal failure,” said Emmanuela Gakidou, co-author of the study and co-founder of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).
The report shows that obesity is increasing worldwide, with more than half of overweight or obese adults in 2021 coming from just eight countries: China, India, the United States, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia, and Egypt. In the coming decades, population growth in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa is expected to drive major increases in obesity. Among high-income nations, the highest obesity rates are projected for the U.S., Chile, and Argentina. Greece is expected to have the highest obesity rates among high-income European countries, with nearly half of women and over 40% of men classified as obese by 2050.
Obesity is already contributing to rising rates of type 2 diabetes, heart disease, high blood pressure, and certain cancers. By 2050, one in four obese adults will be 65 or older, increasing the strain on healthcare systems, particularly in lower-income countries.
Johanna Ralston, CEO of the World Obesity Federation, noted that while some progress is being made in parts of Europe and North America, the crisis is escalating in middle- and low-income countries. A separate analysis by her organization found that only 7% of countries’ health systems are adequately prepared to manage the surge in obesity-related health issues.
The study also projects significant regional disparities, with obesity rising rapidly in North Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and the Caribbean. In wealthy nations, Chile is expected to have the highest obesity rates among children aged 5 to 14, while the U.S. will lead among those aged 15 to 24. Within Europe, Greece is projected to have the highest obesity rates among young males, San Marino among young girls, and Greenland among older teens and young adults.
Despite the grim outlook, researchers suggest that some regions, particularly in Europe, may see a slower transition from overweight to obesity, presenting an opportunity for targeted interventions to curb the crisis.
