Germany’s CDU/CSU alliance has hammered out a preliminary coalition deal with the Social Democrats (SPD), pledging “tough new measures” to curb illegal immigration—at least, that’s what CDU leader Friedrich Merz claimed on Saturday. Among the most striking proposals? Turning away all migrants at the border, even asylum seekers.
However, a closer look reveals a familiar pattern: lofty promises that, in practice, may not stray far from the pro-migration policies of the past decade.
Before the February 23rd election, Merz took a hardline stance on immigration, hoping to lure voters away from the right-wing Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). He even pushed a parliamentary motion, with AfD’s backing, advocating for a full rejection of illegal and undocumented migrants. Yet, barely a day after the election, he walked back his pledge to impose strict border controls on day one of his chancellorship. Instead of unilateral action, the coalition agreement now ties border rejections to “coordination with our European neighbors.” Translation? If neighboring EU countries refuse to take back migrants who passed through their borders, Germany’s hands will be tied. Austria has already made it clear—it won’t be accepting rejected asylum seekers.
The pattern isn’t new. Last September, after a wave of migrant-related knife attacks, the SPD-led government vowed to ramp up border pushbacks. But since then, out of 22,243 illegal entries, only 13,786 resulted in deportations or rejections. Similarly, the supposed freeze on family reunifications for migrants is largely symbolic—it only applies to those under temporary protection, a group that made up less than 10% of the 136,000 family-reunification visas issued last year.
Unsurprisingly, the AfD has slammed the CDU’s deal, calling it a capitulation to SPD’s left-wing demands rather than a true course correction. Meanwhile, the two coalition hopefuls are making grand promises to revive Germany’s economy, lower energy prices, and reform the military. Negotiations over the final coalition agreement—including cabinet seat wrangling—are in full swing, with the goal of forming a new government by mid-April. But one thing seems clear: beyond policy debates, CDU and SPD share a common goal—keeping the AfD out of power at all costs.
