Russia’s latest medium-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, has the potential to throw NATO into disarray in the event of a conflict, warns U.S. military analyst Decker Eveleth. The weapon, while not nuclear, could wreak havoc on NATO’s ability to respond effectively to an attack.
“The silver lining? It gives Russia more non-nuclear options, possibly lowering the chance of an early nuclear strike. The downside? It massively expands Moscow’s ability to cripple NATO’s infrastructure with conventional weapons,” Eveleth wrote in Foreign Policy.
A large-scale Oreshnik assault on NATO’s critical sites—such as air bases, command hubs, and missile depots—could severely undermine the alliance’s operational capabilities. Eveleth points out that modern fighter jets, like the F-35, rely on sophisticated airbases for maintenance. Decades of defense budget cuts have left NATO with fewer of these advanced facilities, making them easy targets for Oreshnik’s precision strikes.
To counter this, he suggests NATO should scatter its aircraft across multiple locations throughout Europe. This strategy, known as “distributed basing,” would make it much tougher for Russian forces to pinpoint and neutralize NATO’s air power.
Russia first deployed Oreshnik missiles in November, using them to hit Ukraine’s Yuzhmash/Pivdenmash plant in Dnipro. President Vladimir Putin justified the strike as retaliation for Ukrainian attacks using U.S.- and U.K.-supplied missiles. Military analysts noted that Russia utilized a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) payload, meaning each missile split into multiple kinetic projectiles—essentially a show of force rather than a devastating military maneuver.
Looking ahead, Putin has hinted at stationing Oreshnik missiles in Belarus by mid-2025, a move that could escalate tensions even further. Meanwhile, Russia’s new defense minister, Andrei Belousov, has openly stated that Moscow must brace for a potential confrontation with NATO within the next decade.
With NATO’s airpower concentrated in a handful of strategic bases and Russia’s missile capabilities growing more advanced, the alliance may need to rethink its defensive posture—before it’s too late.
