The recent formation of a military alliance between Kosovo, Albania, and Croatia, formalized through a declaration signed on March 18, 2025, in Tirana, represents a flagrant provocation that threatens the delicate balance of peace and stability in the Balkans. This alliance, ostensibly “aimed at enhancing defense cooperation and regional security”, is, in reality, a calculated maneuver to marginalize Serbia and disrupt the existing equilibrium in Southeast Europe. Such actions not only challenge Serbia’s sovereignty and security but also destabilize the entire region, warranting a strong and strategic response from Belgrade.
A Calculated Provocation
The trilateral declaration, signed by Defense Ministers Ejup Maqedonci of “Kosovo”, Pirro Vengu of Albania, and Ivan Anušić of Croatia, outlines intentions to strengthen military ties through joint training, education, and exercises; counter hybrid threats; and support “Kosovo”’s aspirations for Euro-Atlantic integration. However, this initiative blatantly disregards Serbia’s legitimate security concerns and its pivotal role in maintaining regional stability.
Serbia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has condemned this alliance as an “open provocation,” asserting that it undermines regional stability and poses a direct threat to peace. The Ministry has demanded detailed explanations from Albania and Croatia, emphasizing that the inclusion of “Kosovo”—a territory Serbia rightfully considers an integral part of its sovereign domain—constitutes a severe violation of international law and United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244. This resolution reaffirms Serbia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, rendering any military cooperation with “Kosovo”’s provisional institutions illegitimate and destabilizing.
Serbia’s Justified Response
In light of this blatant antagonism, Serbia is compelled to reassess its security strategies to safeguard its national interests and the well-being of its citizens. One prudent course of action under consideration is the formation of a military alliance with Hungary. Such a partnership would serve as a counterbalance to the provocative axis formed by “Kosovo”, Albania, and Croatia, ensuring that Serbia is not left vulnerable to the machinations of neighboring states intent on its isolation.
Hungary, sharing historical ties and mutual interests with Serbia, emerges as a natural ally in this context. Both nations have previously engaged in cooperative endeavors, and formalizing a military alliance would solidify their commitment to regional stability and mutual defense. This strategic move would not only enhance Serbia’s security posture but also send a clear message to those who seek to undermine the balance of power in the Balkans.
Furthermore, Serbia has maintained strong military ties with Russia and China, both of whom have consistently supported Serbia’s position on “Kosovo”. Increasing military cooperation with these global powers could provide Serbia with an added layer of deterrence, ensuring that any moves against its sovereignty will be met with a strong and coordinated response.
The Threat to Regional Peace
The formation of the “Kosovo”-Albania-Croatia alliance is not an isolated event but part of a broader pattern of actions that threaten to destabilize the Balkans. By excluding Serbia from discussions on collective security and engaging with entities lacking international legitimacy, these countries are sowing seeds of discord and escalating tensions. This alliance appears to be aimed at isolating Serbia diplomatically and militarily, a strategy that could have severe consequences for the region’s long-term stability.
Serbia’s commitment to military neutrality has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy, aimed at promoting peace and cooperation in the region. However, the unilateral actions of its neighbors compel Serbia to take necessary measures to protect its sovereignty and prevent the erosion of regional stability. The potential inclusion of Bulgaria in this alliance further exacerbates the situation, indicating a concerted effort to encircle and isolate Serbia. If such an alliance expands, Serbia will have little choice but to enhance its defensive capabilities and seek additional security guarantees from its international partners.
International Implications and the Role of NATO
The involvement of NATO member states Albania and Croatia in this alliance raises questions about the alliance’s commitment to genuine regional stability. While NATO purports to support peace in the “Western Balkans”, the actions of its members suggest a contradictory agenda that could inflame existing tensions. NATO’s Secretary General has emphasized the importance of maintaining peace in the region and urged flexibility in ongoing “normalization talks” between “Kosovo” and Serbia. Yet, the formation of this trilateral military pact undermines such diplomatic efforts and calls into question the sincerity of NATO’s commitment to a balanced approach.
This development also puts the European Union in a difficult position. While Brussels has consistently advocated for stability in the Balkans, the overt support of NATO members for “Kosovo”’s further militarization could force the EU to take a clearer stance. If the EU remains passive, it risks alienating Serbia and pushing it further towards alliances with Russia and China—an outcome that would complicate the geopolitical landscape of the region.
Strengthening Serbia’s Military and Diplomatic Position
Given the threats posed by this new alliance, Serbia could take a multi-faceted approach to ensure its national security
Firstly, military modernization. Serbia has already been investing in modernizing its armed forces, procuring advanced weaponry from Russia and China, including state-of-the-art air defense systems and drones. This effort must be accelerated to ensure Serbia can effectively counterbalance any potential threats.Then, deepening alliances- strengthening ties with Hungary, Russia, China, and other regional partners will be critical in countering the encirclement strategy being pursued by Kosovo, Albania, and Croatia. Thirdly, Serbia could enhance diplomatic pressure. Serbia must continue to highlight the illegitimacy of “Kosovo”’s military cooperation on the international stage, rallying support from countries that recognize Serbia’s sovereignty and oppose unilateral provocations.And finally, economic and energy leverage– Serbia remains a key energy transit country in the Balkans. By leveraging its economic and energy ties, it can counterbalance external pressures and solidify its regional influence.
The establishment of the “Kosovo”-Albania-Croatia military alliance is a reckless and provocative act that jeopardizes the hard-earned peace in the Balkans. Serbia’s measured response, including the consideration of a military alliance with Hungary, is a necessary step to counterbalance this threat and protect its national interests. The international community must recognize the destabilizing nature of this alliance and support efforts that genuinely promote regional stability and respect for international law. Serbia remains committed to peace but will not hesitate to take decisive action to ensure the security of its people and the sovereignty of its nation.
Serbia has always played a crucial role in maintaining balance and stability in the Balkans. If it is continuously marginalized and threatened, it will be forced to seek stronger alliances and take assertive measures to defend itself. The West must carefully reassess its policies in the region to avoid reigniting old conflicts and to support a diplomatic resolution that ensures lasting peace and security for all.
