Novo Nordisk’s shares recorded their steepest monthly decline since July 2002, dropping 27% in March. The downturn was driven by increasing competition and underwhelming clinical trial results. Despite the setback, analysts remain positive, predicting a potential stock price rebound of up to 60% over the next year.
As of March 31, Novo Nordisk’s stock had fallen to 469.8 Danish Krone (€63), its lowest price since February 2023. The company has now lost 54% of its value from its June 2024 peak, ceding its position as Europe’s most valuable firm to LVMH and SAP. The selloff was partly triggered by mounting pressure from U.S. competitor Eli Lilly, whose weight-loss drugs, Zepbound and Mounjaro, have intensified competition against Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy and Ozempic. Year-to-date, Novo’s stock is down 25%, while Eli Lilly’s has risen 4.6%.
Recent U.S. prescription data suggests that Novo Nordisk may be losing market share to Eli Lilly, leading to a 0.9% drop in Novo’s stock and a 0.4% increase in Eli Lilly’s shares on the last trading day of March.
Novo Nordisk’s net profit margin has declined to 34.8% in 2024, down from 36% in 2023. The company’s latest guidance for 2025 predicts revenue growth of 16% to 24%, with the mid-point representing its slowest expansion in three years. Bank of America analysts anticipate further downward revisions when Novo Nordisk releases its quarterly earnings in May. Investor concerns have also been amplified by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent pledge to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports, which could pressure profit margins.
A series of disappointing trial results for Novo Nordisk’s next-generation weight-loss drugs has further dampened investor confidence. In December 2024, the company revealed that its new obesity drug, CagriSema, resulted in a 22.7% weight loss over 68 weeks—falling short of the projected 25%. The announcement led to a 20% single-day stock drop, the worst in the company’s history. Updated trial data released in March showed an even lower 15.7% weight reduction, causing an additional 8% stock decline.
Meanwhile, Eli Lilly is set to release trial results for its latest weight-loss drug, retatrutide, later this year. Preliminary findings from September indicate that patients experienced a 24% weight reduction over 68 weeks. Both CagriSema and retatrutide are expected to seek regulatory approval in early 2026.
