While the global population continues to rise, Welt reports that this growth is now driven almost entirely by one continent: Africa. In every other region, more people are dying than being born—a reversal of the fears of overpopulation that dominated discussions in past decades.
Demographers, once focused on a “population explosion,” are now sounding alarms over plummeting birth rates. The implications could be transformative, reshaping societies and the geopolitical landscape.
In the late 1960s, American biologist Paul Ehrlich warned of a “population bomb,” likening unchecked human growth to a cancerous threat. At that time, the global population was around 3.5 billion. Today, it has surpassed 8.2 billion, and some studies suggest the true figure might be even higher due to underreporting in rural regions.
The pace of growth remains swift, but projections suggest it will peak around the 2080s at 10 billion before declining. Yet early signs of this demographic transition are already here: birth rates are falling at unprecedented rates.
The current global fertility rate stands at 2.2 children per woman—barely above the replacement threshold of 2.1. Only sub-Saharan Africa continues to see high fertility, averaging four children per woman, many of whom are born from unplanned pregnancies. Elsewhere, birth rates are well below replacement levels.
Experts link the decline to improved education, broader access to contraception, and changing roles for women in society. As women gain control over their futures, they tend to choose smaller families.
Government incentives—such as parental leave, child subsidies, and free childcare—have had minimal, often temporary, impacts. In Germany, for instance, the fertility rate briefly peaked at 1.59 in 2016 before falling to a record low of 1.35. Deaths have outpaced births there since the 1970s. Germany’s population grew by nearly 100,000 in 2024, solely due to immigration and refugees, bringing the total to 83.6 million.
Demographic experts now believe this trend is likely irreversible. American demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, writing in Foreign Affairs, refers to the shift as a “population implosion,” predicting the dawn of an “era of depopulation.” “We will live in a world of shrinking and aging populations,” he writes.
Even religion appears to be losing sway over reproductive decisions. In Iran, the fertility rate has fallen to 1.7; in predominantly Catholic Poland, it’s just 1.1.
Ralf Ulrich, a demographer based in Bielefeld, observes, “It would be interesting to see what would happen if a pop icon like Taylor Swift — with nearly 300 million followers on social media — became a mother.” He speculates this could influence others to follow suit.
With fewer births and longer lifespans, nations are facing aging populations and shrinking workforces, placing new burdens on pension systems, healthcare, and economic growth. These pressures aren’t limited to developed nations. As fewer workers support aging populations, new models for innovation and labor participation will be needed, including extended working lives and a stronger focus on lifelong learning.
Migration could become even more crucial, with countries competing for young, skilled individuals. On a social level, smaller family sizes may lead to changes in childhood experiences and community behavior. Consumer markets could also shrink, diminishing demand.
As Europe’s share of the global population continues to decline, Africa’s will rise. This demographic transformation is expected to shift global power dynamics and amplify Africa’s calls for greater representation in international institutions like the UN Security Council.
By 2050, Nigeria’s population is expected to rival that of the United States.
Economist Heribert Dieter of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) sees demographics as a key driver of national strength. Youthful populations tend to bolster both economic growth and military capacity. In contrast, countries with fewer young people may struggle to maintain defense forces. Moreover, when families invest their hopes in just one child, there’s often less willingness to send them into conflict.
This, some suggest, could lead to a more peaceful global order. Still, the demographic future will look very different across regions, underscoring the complex and uneven nature of this population shift.
