Despite public assurances, the Italian government is privately uncertain whether it will be able to meet NATO’s defense spending commitment of 2 percent of GDP, POLITICO reports, citing sources familiar with the matter in Rome.
Finance Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti stated earlier this week that Italy would reach the 2 percent target by the end of 2025 by including spending on defense-adjacent services such as the coast guard and financial police in its calculations. This approach would allow Italy to avoid increasing the overall defense budget, thereby preserving funding for politically sensitive areas like the country’s already overburdened healthcare system.
However, two senior officials involved in budget discussions expressed skepticism that the European Commission and NATO will accept this “accounting maneuver” during their upcoming review. According to the sources, Rome expects increased pressure from both Brussels and Washington—particularly amid calls from the Trump administration for NATO members to raise defense spending to as much as 5 percent of GDP.
On April 25, the Italian parliament is scheduled to debate and vote on the draft budget, which includes the reclassified defense expenditures. But officials warn that both NATO and the European Commission may challenge the legality of the proposed accounting. While Rome’s arguments currently appear sound, the evaluation criteria may be reassessed later this year.
“Political pressure is inevitable,” one of the sources said, adding that Rome may be forced to cut other parts of the budget in order to allocate fresh funds for defense. The official also noted that Italy could initially meet the 2 percent target, only to later reduce spending to a level necessary solely for the “maintenance” of its armed forces.
