2025 will likely see the intensification of Europe’s energy policy struggle. Surging costs and geopolitical instability have led to significant public dissatisfaction with the sacrifices entailed by the Commission’s aggressive climate policies.
We now have a significant front of political leaders in the EU whose perspective on the Commission’s Green Transition is sceptical, and who advocate for a measured approach. Figures such as Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands, and Friedrich Merz in Germany have ascended to prominence, in part for their opposition to the hard turn away from fossil fuels often advocated by Von der Leyen. They represent a mounting discontent among a citizenry increasingly unwilling to bear the economic strain of stringent green policies and the erosion of its purchasing power.
In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), which has led the governing coalition since late 2023, advocates for repealing national climate legislation and withdrawing the Netherlands from the Paris Agreement. Wilders has dismissed renewable energy projects like offshore wind and solar developments as insufficient, and has pushed for expanding fossil fuel extraction in the North Sea.
Italian Prime Minister Meloni, for her part, has made her ambitions to become a major natural gas hub clear. She has pursued agreements with Libya and Algeria to expand Italy’s natural gas imports from the southern Mediterranean coast, strengthening its position as a key energy player in Europe. Meloni has described the EU’s current climate strategies as harmful, advocating for a pragmatic approach prioritizing energy security by focusing on what present infrastructure and technology can reliably deliver. She has been able to pivot towards Africa in no small part because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the consequence of which has been to severely disrupt Europe’s energy landscape by cutting off Russian gas supplies.
Finally, as Europe’s largest economy, Germany’s energy policies under a CDU government are likely to shape the bloc’s direction. Friedrich Merz and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) may regain a solid footing in Germany in the 2025 elections. Merz is more aligned with standard Commission climate goals than Wilders or Meloni, but nonetheless has been quite critical of the EU’s projected ban on combustion engines by 2035. Also, in contrast to Germany’s recent trajectory, he has expressed interest in developing nuclear energy.
It is also the case that, if the Trump presidency leads to de-escalation in Ukraine, normalization with Moscow may well be on the cards, such that pipelines through eastern Europe resume furnishing the EU with gas. This would effectively mean that the political window during which there was a clear case to be made that circumstances required developing renewable energy infrastructure and presenting the public with use-cases of its viability is rapidly closing.
Without that pressure, the Green Transition is likely to become a more long-term policy goal, albeit the Commission’s will and that of international institutions remains strong.
