The first talks between Washington and Moscow took place in Riyadh on February 18, six days after US President Donald Trump, following a “productive” telephone conversation with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, said that the dialogue would begin immediately. Ukraine, due to its diplomatic weakness, has long been outside the context of the aforementioned discussions, and its dissatisfaction with this has been known. Now, however, EU leaders have also come forward with a wish (in fact, a demand) to join the negotiation process.
“Not a relevant question”
Kyiv, openly offended by the course of the meeting in Saudi Arabia, called on the EU to urgently appoint a special envoy, as the US did with Keith Kellogg. Wanting to show their importance in contrast to a weakened Ukraine, European countries themselves are eager to take a seat at the negotiating table on an equal basis with other participants. Therefore, the President of the European Council Antonio Costa has already started a process of consultations with the leaders of the 27 member states on the appointment of a special envoy.
The Ukrainian authorities express hope that this will happen as quickly as possible. Despite the hastily organized meetings in Munich and Paris between ministers and heads of foreign policy departments, the topic was not raised there. One of the diplomats, on condition of anonymity, told Euronews that “this is not a relevant question.” Moreover, these meetings failed to clarify the issue of what joint security guarantees European countries are ready to provide as part of the peace process.
Another politician who believes that Europe will not be included in the negotiations is Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. “The leaders of the great countries of Europe missed the moment when they could have taken the initiative in the Russian war in Ukraine,” Orban noted. A MEP Andras Laszlo also gave an accurate assessment of what is happening: “Donald Trump made it very clear that he will try to end the war. As the president elect has limited authority to act before inauguration, there was a last window of opportunity for European leaders to take initiative and negotiate between early November and the 20th of January.”
Europe does not want to aggravate difficult relations with the US and Russia
Today we are seeing how Europe has excluded itself from the peace process to one degree or another for a number of reasons. Firstly, it is aware of the scope and persistence of Trump’s position and understands that Moscow and Washington have serious lines of official and unofficial contacts, and it, Europe, should not aggravate the already extremely strained relations with them. Secondly, the European Union is simply not ready for these negotiations: it did not have time to prepare for them earlier, including during the Biden presidency, when relations with the United States were less tough. The EU even managed to miss the three-month buffer period between Trump’s re-election and inauguration. This is confirmed by European diplomats themselves. “The EU or some European states should have proposed talks before Trump launched his initiative… We would not be in a situation where we try to buy a seat by striving to offer troop deployments or money in a context we don’t decide,” former French diplomat Claude-France Arnould said.
If we assume a scenario in which the format of the negotiations is expanded, potential candidates for the role of special European envoy are Kaja Kallas, Giorgia Meloni and Antonio Costa. The Vice-President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas, has the chance of receiving an invitation, since her current position is relatively equal in terms of responsibility to the new role under discussion. Another candidate is Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who has ties to Musk and Trump. However, the fact that Rome is not one of the key military players on the political chessboard plays against her. The name of the President of the European Council Antonio Costa has been mentioned by many, including the head of the Chatham House’s Europe programme Armida van Rij, who says he is the best person to handle the task, given his success in reaching consensus between EU capitals.
At the same time, the risks are obvious to the European authorities: whoever becomes the special representative, there is a chance that he will strive not only for global goals, but also to defend his own national interests. Such apprehension is felt, for example, in relation to Macron, who previously expressed his readiness to send peacekeeping troops to Ukraine. At that time, other EU member states rejected this proposal, remembering how Macron had already tried to mediate in negotiations between Tehran and Washington, but failed.
