A Trump-led White House could spell disaster for Germany—and by extension, Poland—warns Polish outlet Gazeta Prawna. The looming threat? Tariffs.
Gazeta Prawna argues that Trump’s planned 10% tariffs on imports to the U.S. would devastate Germany, Poland’s largest trading partner. After Trump’s expected victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential race, analysts are already adjusting their economic forecasts. The primary shift is the anticipated introduction of tariffs ranging from 10% to 20% on select goods, a move that would heavily impact the EU.
Goldman Sachs predicts that while Trump may not impose tariffs across the board, the automotive sector will likely face at least a 10% hit. Given that Germany is a major player in car manufacturing, experts predict these tariffs could shrink its GDP by up to 0.6%.
In a similar vein, Germany’s IW Institute forecasts a 1.5% GDP dip over the next three years, with the ifo economic institute projecting €33 billion in losses. With Germany already struggling under economic turmoil and a shaky government, a trade war with the U.S. would only make matters worse.
But the potential fallout goes beyond just trade. Experts fear escalating political tensions, with tariffs and sanctions quickly spiraling out of control. One example? The U.S. could retaliate against the EU’s moves to censor Elon Musk’s X platform, with Vice President-elect J.D. Vance even suggesting that NATO support could be at risk if the EU targets Musk’s free speech rights. If military support for NATO is questioned, further tariffs would likely follow.
Since Poland’s economy is closely tied to Germany’s, it’s all but certain that Warsaw would suffer if the trade war escalates, potentially facing tariffs on Polish exports as well.
