Only a few days until the first round of Romania’s presidential elections, the nation stands at a pivotal juncture. The November 24 vote on Sunday, followed by a likely runoff on December 8, and a parliamentary election sandwiched between the two rounds, on Dec. 1, promises to be one of the most consequential elections in the recent history of the country. While Romania operates as a semi-presidential republic, these elections are viewed as the most significant event in the country’s political calendar, with the stakes extending beyond the presidency to influence parliamentary dynamics and Romania’s position on the global stage.
Romania’s electoral process for the presidency is straightforward yet crucial. All eligible candidates compete in the first round. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote—a scenario widely anticipated this year—the top two candidates proceed to a runoff. The victor in the runoff earns a five-year mandate as Romania’s head of state, wielding significant influence over foreign policy, national security, and the nomination of the next prime minister.
For the first time since 2000, there is no clear runner-up for the second round, and this elections could determine whether Romania continues to throw its weight behind Ukraine in its fight against Russia, or backs a cease-fire.
The 2024 race features five prominent contenders, each representing distinct political ideologies and visions for Romania’s future, but the two are at the forefront, regarding the polls. The current Prime Minister and leader of the PSD (Social-Democratic Party), Marcel Ciolacu is the presumed frontrunner, with around 25% support. His platform emphasizes economic stability, social welfare, and continued alignment with NATO and the European Union. However, his candidacy is shadowed by the PSD’s historical controversies, including allegations of corruption and governance inefficiencies. The second, regarding the most recent polls, George Simion (Alliance for the Union of Romanians – AUR), the national-conservative leader of the AUR, has emerged as a formidable challenger, with approximately 20% of support. His campaign resonates with disillusioned voters seeking radical change, emphasizing national sovereignty, traditional values, and skepticism toward foreign entanglements.
Simion’s meteoric rise from a fringe political figure to a leading presidential contender exemplifies the growing appeal of national-sovereignist and conservative policies in Romania. His party, the AUR, gained prominence during the COVID-19 pandemic, leveraging anti-establishment rhetoric and traditionalist messaging to build a robust support base. The party’s name, meaning “gold” in Romanian, reflects its appeal to national pride and its call for the reunification of Romania with neighboring Moldova.
Ciolacu strongly supports Ukraine and the country’s EU and NATO membership. Simion opposes aid to Ukraine, particularly military.
The winner will also nominate the next prime minister, which complicates policymaking and the whole ongoing political process.
The election underscores the fragmentation of Romania’s political landscape. Traditionally, the second round has been a contest between the PSD and a center-right candidate, often from the PNL. However, the rise of the AUR as a major political force disrupts this dynamic. Simion’s ability to appeal to rural voters and those disillusioned with mainstream politics reflects broader trends of conservative resurgence across Europe.
While Simion rejects allegations of being pro-Russian, his opposition to aiding Ukraine and scepticism of EU policies align with the sentiments of some voters wary of Romania’s entanglement in external conflicts. Critics argue that his positions risk isolating Romania internationally, while supporters view him as a defender of national sovereignty.
At the heart of the 2024 elections are pressing issues that dominate voter concerns, like economic challenges and the war in Ukraine.
The high cost of living and a rapidly growing national deficit have become focal points of the campaign. Inflation and rising prices have sparked widespread frustration, and candidates have been compelled to outline concrete plans to address these challenges. Ciolacu emphasizes continuity and incremental reforms, while Simion’s rhetoric suggests a more protectionist economic approach.
As a NATO member on the Eastern flank, Romania has been a steadfast ally of Ukraine since Russia-Ukraine war has started. Most leading candidates, including Ciolacu, support continued aid to Ukraine, aligning with Romania’s pro-Western stance. However, Simion has taken a contrarian position, opposing further military assistance and advocating for a cease-fire. This position resonates with segments of the electorate who blame the war for economic hardships and hope for relief through de-escalation.
The outcomes of the presidential and parliamentary elections will shape Romania’s domestic and foreign policy for years to come. The president’s role in overseeing foreign policy, nominating the prime minister, and serving as a symbol of national unity grants the officeholder significant influence. This year’s election will determine whether Romania continues its current trajectory as a pro-Western, EU-aligned nation or takes a turn toward nationalist-souvereignist conservatism.
Under Ciolacu’s leadership, Romania is expected to maintain its strong commitments to NATO and the EU. This approach aligns with its strategic interests as a member state on the alliance’s Eastern border. Conversely, a Simion presidency could signal a shift toward Euro-realism, with greater emphasis on national sovereignty and skepticism toward centralized EU policies.
Romania’s presidential candidates participated in a tense three-hour televised debate on Monday, discussing key issues including the war in Ukraine, LGBTQ+ rights, and Romania’s role within the European Union.
George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians (AUR), reiterated his commitment to keeping Romania out of any wars. He suggested that former U.S. President Donald Trump should bring peace. During the debate, Simion dramatically held up a Bible, challenging his opponents to vow on it to protect Romanians’ right to peace. His rivals declined the gesture.
Simion has faced criticism from opponents who label him as pro-Russian and anti-European Union, accusations he strongly denied. He clarified that his stance aligns with “Euro-realism,” advocating for a Europe of sovereign nations akin to the European Conservatives and Reformists group to which his party belongs. Simion also emphasized Romania’s independence, opposing the adoption of the euro as its currency.
On LGBTQ+ rights, none of the candidates supported legalizing gay marriage. The debate reaffirmed the prevailing view that marriage should remain defined as between one man and one woman. However, most candidates expressed openness to civil partnerships to ensure equal rights for same-sex couples in areas such as inheritance and hospital visitation. Simion dismissed the need for civil partnerships, suggesting alternative legal solutions that do not redefine marriage, which he described as the “basis of society.”
This debate highlighted ideological divisions on fundamental issues, with candidates taking varied approaches to appeal to Romania’s diverse electorate.
Despite his strong base, Simion faces significant hurdles in a potential runoff against Ciolacu. Polls indicate a likely 55-45 split in favor of Ciolacu, although the diaspora vote could play a decisive role. Simion’s ability to expand his appeal beyond his core supporters, particularly among urban and centrist voters, will be critical to his success.
The fragmentation of the right-wing vote further complicates the race. Candidates like Lasconi and Ciucă dilute the conservative electorate, potentially paving the way for a Ciolacu victory.
The 2024 Elections as a Reflection of Broader Trends
The stakes of Romania’s elections extend beyond its borders. The rise of national-souvereignist and conservative movements across Europe finds a parallel in Simion’s candidacy. His platform, emphasizing traditional values and national sovereignty, mirrors the priorities of other right-wing leaders gaining traction across the continent. At the same time, the PSD’s bid to retain power under Ciolacu reflects the challenges faced by center-left parties navigating a polarized electorate.
Romania’s 2024 presidential elections are not just a contest for the presidency; they are a referendum on the country’s direction in an increasingly complex geopolitical and domestic landscape. With critical issues like economic stability, the war in Ukraine, and Romania’s role in the EU and NATO at stake, the outcomes will resonate far beyond the immediate political cycle. As Romanians head to the polls, the choice they make will shape the nation’s trajectory for years to come, making this election a defining moment in the country’s democratic journey.
