Birth rates in England and Wales are nearing historic lows, with live births hitting 591,072 in 2023—the lowest since 1977—according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
The total fertility rate also plunged to an unprecedented 1.44 children per woman, marking the lowest level since records began in 1938.
The ONS noted the stark contrast between today’s figures and historical trends. Despite a population four times larger than in 1851, when births regularly exceeded 600,000, the current birth rate hovers near levels seen during World War II’s disruptions. Remarkably, even late-war birth numbers were higher than those seen since the 1970s, after the introduction of widespread contraception and legal abortion.
For a stable population, a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman is needed. However, the ONS found fertility declining across nearly all age groups. Factors contributing to this trend include increased access to contraception, legal abortion, expanded educational and professional opportunities for women, and the weakening connection between marriage and childbearing.
The ONS also warned of a potential future where half of women born in England and Wales may never have children. They observed, “The total proportion of women who have children at all increases in both the total fertility rate during their childbearing years and their completed family size.”
Interestingly, areas with the highest birth rates, such as Bradford, Luton, and Wolverhampton, tend to overlap with regions of greater ethnic diversity. Yet, while births dwindle, the UK’s population continues to rise due to net migration. Without immigration, the country would have recorded more deaths than births in 2023, with 16,300 more deaths—a natural population decline that arrived faster than the ONS initially predicted.
In stark contrast to its growing population, England and Wales face an uncertain demographic future, as the interplay of migration and declining fertility reshapes the nation’s landscape.
