Emmanuel Macron’s decision to appoint François Bayrou as his third prime minister in 2024 only highlights his ongoing struggle to maintain control over a deeply fractured French political system.
Macron, whose popularity has plummeted, is clearly in damage control mode, desperate to find someone to navigate France through its latest political crisis — one of many under his rule. Bayrou, a longtime ally of Macron and head of the centrist Democratic Movement (MoDem), faces an uphill battle to pass crucial legislation, starting with a special law to extend the 2024 budget. And let’s be honest, anyone aligned with Macron is already fighting a losing battle. His deeply unpopular government is teetering, and Bayrou’s close ties to Macron will only make him a target for even more opposition.
Bayrou, a 73-year-old politician who has already had three failed attempts at the presidency, will now have to try to juggle the impossible task of steering legislation through a parliament that is, frankly, ungovernable. Divided into three bickering factions, including a left-wing coalition that no one can trust and Macron’s centrist bloc, the National Assembly has become a chaotic mess. Not to mention, Bayrou’s own reputation isn’t exactly spotless. While Macron appointed him as justice minister back in 2017, Bayrou had to resign shortly after due to an investigation into his party’s alleged fraudulent use of parliamentary assistants. Though he was cleared of the charges this year, the stain on his record remains.
Macron’s latest political move comes after former prime minister Michel Barnier’s government collapsed under the pressure of trying to pass the 2025 budget. With rising borrowing costs and Macron’s inability to unite the political factions, the situation looks bleak. As Macron scrambles to secure support for Bayrou from all corners — excluding Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and the far-left France Unbowed — the cracks in his leadership continue to widen. If the Socialist Party joins the coalition, it could end up costing Macron billions in the upcoming budget, and a government adviser has already bluntly pointed out the price tag: “Now we will see how many billions the support of the Socialist Party will cost.”
Bayrou’s first real test will come with the 2025 budget, which aims for austerity measures that will likely anger both the left and the far-right. If Macron’s government fails to push it through, French borrowing costs will only go higher, further jeopardizing the economy. Meanwhile, the question on everyone’s mind is whether Macron will even finish his second term. Given the turmoil, it seems increasingly unlikely that he will.
In the midst of all this, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally stands firm as a strong opposition, while Macron flounders, unable to stabilize his presidency. One thing’s clear: this political chaos is far from over, and Bayrou will likely find himself trapped in the same untenable position as his predecessor Barnier. As France’s political future remains uncertain, it’s hard to see how Macron’s grip on power can hold much longer.
