Italy’s decision on the EU-Mercosur trade deal, which could impact Europe’s farmers, has been up in the air, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s government weighing the pros and cons.
Initially, there was hope among anti-deal countries, including France, Poland, Ireland, and Austria, that Italy might join them in vetoing the agreement. However, sources indicate that Meloni is likely to avoid a veto, given the economic benefits of the deal, which would favor Italy’s automotive industry, especially its ties with Germany.
Though Italy has been a longtime supporter of the deal, concerns over its impact on European agriculture led Meloni to reconsider. Some insiders believe Italy may approve the deal in exchange for specific concessions, like stricter controls on imported products and EU support for farmers.
In 2020, a study commissioned by Italy’s foreign ministry found Mercosur would benefit the country economically, aligning with Italy’s interests in the automotive sector. While Meloni’s coalition partner, Matteo Salvini’s Lega, opposes the deal, it’s unlikely to change Meloni’s stance, especially with the potential for increased influence in Brussels.
In the European Parliament, the decision will also be influenced by the balance of power between the Greens, Left, Patriots, and the center-left ‘Ursula coalition.’ Ultimately, Meloni will likely support the deal if she can secure enough concessions, solidifying her influence and strengthening her position in Brussels.
