Global coal consumption is set to reach an unprecedented 8.7 billion tonnes this year and is expected to remain near record levels for several years, driven by a global gas crisis, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The IEA noted that coal production, trade, and power generation have surged since the spike in global gas prices, marking a sharp rebound from a slump during the Covid-19 pandemic. The agency forecasts coal use to peak at 8.77 billion tonnes by the end of 2023 and remain elevated until at least 2027.
China continues to dominate global coal consumption, using 30% more of the fossil fuel than the rest of the world combined. The IEA anticipates China’s coal demand will grow by 1% in 2024 to reach a record 4.9 billion tonnes. India’s demand is projected to rise by over 5%, hitting 1.3 billion tonnes, a level previously attained only by China.
In contrast, coal power generation in developed economies such as the U.S. and the European Union has already peaked. The IEA expects coal use to decline by 5% in the U.S. and 12% in the EU this year. The UK has effectively ended its reliance on coal power, with the Ratcliffe-on-Soar power plant in Nottinghamshire ceasing operations in September, ahead of the government’s 2024 deadline.
Despite the spike in coal consumption, the IEA remains optimistic about the impact of renewable energy. The agency predicts that the growth of renewables over the next three years will limit coal’s role in global energy production, even as electricity demand surges in developing nations. However, a significant decline in coal demand is not expected until the end of the decade.
The IEA’s findings underscore the challenges of transitioning to cleaner energy sources amid geopolitical and economic pressures, with coal still playing a pivotal role in meeting global energy demands.
