A recent analysis shows that if an election were held today, the left-wing Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer, would lose its parliamentary majority and see a significant drop in seats, mainly due to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party.
Despite a strong victory just months ago, Labour’s support has sharply declined, with predictions indicating the loss of at least 183 seats, dropping its total from 411 to just 228. This would put Labour well below the 326 seats needed for a majority, pushing them towards a European-style coalition government with the Liberal Democrats, who are expected to win only 58 seats—still falling short of the majority threshold, leading to a likely hung parliament.
The analysis, based on a survey of over 11,000 people, forecasts a major surge for Farage’s Reform UK, which could rise from just five seats to 72, becoming the third-largest party in the House of Commons. Labour is projected to lose key cabinet ministers, including Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner and Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, to Reform candidates. Additionally, Health Secretary Wes Streeting may lose to an independent candidate.
The poll also highlights growing dissatisfaction with Starmer’s leadership. Half of Britons believe the country will worsen in 2025 under his government, and many predict that Starmer will be forced to resign within the year. Reform UK’s momentum suggests it could perform even better than expected, with significant gains in areas like South Yorkshire, North Nottinghamshire, and Greater Manchester.
As the next election isn’t expected until 2029, Farage’s party has ample time to grow further, already polling second in 206 constituencies. The poll’s findings come amid widespread pessimism about Labour’s ability to improve the country, further boosting Reform UK’s prospects.
