The Czech Republic’s reliance on natural gas imports from the East has surged, reaching up to 95 percent by the end of 2024, according to transportation data from Net4Gas.
While the precise origin of the gas remains uncertain, analysts believe it is primarily Russian gas. This increase is attributed to the lower price of Russian gas compared to imports from the West, where transit fees through Germany have made gas more expensive.
In the first ten months of the year, gas supplies were more evenly split, with about 55 percent coming from Germany and 45 percent from Slovakia. However, in November and December, there was a significant shift, with Eastern imports making up 95 percent of the supply.
“Although the origin of the gas cannot be clearly determined, it can be assumed with a high degree of certainty that it is Russian gas,” said Jiří Tyleček, an analyst at XTB.
The shift in imports from the East is mainly due to the cost advantage of Russian gas, which has been cheaper than gas from the West due to the transit fees imposed by Germany. These fees, currently at 2.5 euros (63 CZK) per megawatt-hour, will be abolished in 2025, which analysts predict will make gas imports from the West, including LNG and Norwegian gas, more attractive again.
“The abolition of the obligation to pay the fee will result in an automatic reduction of gas import costs through Germany by approximately seven percent. This will make purchasing gas on the European market, or direct imports of LNG or Norwegian gas, more attractive compared to Russian gas deliveries,” said Michal Kocůrek, managing partner at EGÚ Brno. However, analysts suggest this change will have minimal impact on gas prices in the Czech Republic.
Czech Minister of Industry and Trade, Lukáš Vlček (STAN), has repeatedly emphasized that the country is no longer dependent on Russian gas, with secured supplies from Norway and the Dutch LNG terminal in Eemshaven. This ensures that the country’s gas supply will not be at risk, even if Ukrainian transit is halted. However, the Czech Republic’s underground gas storage is significantly lower than last year, standing at 65 percent full as of Friday. This is a decrease from over 3 billion cubic meters and 88 percent fullness at the same time in 2023.
At 65 percent, Czech gas storage levels are now below the European Union average of 73.5 percent, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE AGSI).
