European ministers are meeting with Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the de facto leader of Syria and head of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra Front, a breakaway al-Qaeda franchise). This meeting follows the December offensive spearheaded by al-Jolani, which toppled Bashar al-Assad’s regime and ushered in a fragile interim administration. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, representing the European Union, engaged in discussions with the HTS-dominated Damascus authority. The diplomatic overture is framed by Western ministers as an act of solidarity with the Syrian people, emphasizing the intention to foster a “sovereign, stable, and peaceful” nation. Despite these aspirations, questions persist about the legitimacy and intentions of the HTS leadership – and crucially, its lack of democratic legitimacy.
The HTS-led government has called for the lifting of international sanctions to facilitate reconstruction, with France and Germany seemingly leading the charge in this regard. These calls have sparked considerable debate, as critics argue that easing sanctions risks legitimizing a group with a history steeped in extremism and human rights abuses. Western leaders have, therefore, walked a fine line, coupling their support for Syrian reconstruction with explicit conditions. The European ministers have urged the interim government to avoid acts of vengeance against civilian populations, expedite democratic elections, and refrain from imposing an Islamist judicial or educational framework.
Their visit includes a tour of Saydnaya prison, a site infamous for atrocities under Assad’s regime. This symbolic gesture serves to underline the abuses of the former government while simultaneously deflecting attention from the HTS’s own thoroughly violent record. Highlighting Assad’s human rights violations is seen as a key step in attempting to whitewash the current administration in Damascus and garner broader international support for reconstruction efforts under al-Jolani’s leadership.
The upcoming international summit on Syria in Paris, scheduled for January 14, 2025, may provide further insights into the global community’s approach to this complex dynamic. As Western powers weigh their options, the situation presents a precarious balancing act, navigating the ethical and strategic dilemmas of engaging with a leadership rooted in religious fundamentalism.
The EU’s geopolitical orientation, often closely aligned with U.S. priorities, appears to prioritize the displacement of Iranian-aligned actors in the Near East—among whom Assad was a prominent figure (albeit he had distanced himself from Tehran and drawn near to the Gulf States towards the end of his regime). This takes precedence, it seems, over the danger posed by the resurgence of Salafi-extremist factions, and the looming prospect of destabilization as a result of Syrian balkanization (which would likely entail population displacement and a renewed refugee flow to Europe). This calculation, however, raises doubts about long-term regional stability and the potential repercussions of empowering a group like HTS.
Whatever advantages Europe might anticipate from this realignment, Turkey is poised to reap far greater benefits. As an emerging regional hegemon, Ankara has played a critical role as a sponsor of HTS, first when the group was confined to Idlib province and now as it establishes control over Damascus. Turkey’s influence in shaping the trajectory of HTS and the broader Syrian conflict underscores its strategic ambitions in the region, potentially at the expense of European interests.
