The agency believes that the halt of supplies through Russian pipelines could spark a “global struggle for natural gas,” driving up demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and creating serious consequences.
Europe will primarily be impacted by rising gas prices, exacerbating the situation with high bills for consumers and businesses. Another threat will come from developing countries in Asia and South America, which risk losing access to gas.
Additionally, Europe may fail to meet its gas storage targets this winter, increasing competition for supplies. New LNG production capacities are not keeping up with the rising demand.
To meet demand, Europe will need to import 10% more gas in 2025 compared to 2024. This will divert supplies from Asia, leading to price hikes that will make gas unaffordable for countries like India, Bangladesh, and Egypt.
This situation could also hinder Germany’s economic recovery. Additional LNG supplies will begin only in 2026, with a second phase of increases expected by 2030. The main suppliers will be the U.S. and Qatar.
