For the first time, a presidential poll suggests Karol Nawrocki, the candidate for Law and Justice (PiS), could edge out Civic Coalition (KO) contender Rafał Trzaskowski in a tightly contested race.
The survey, conducted by the National Research Group, shows that in the initial round of voting, Trzaskowski, Warsaw’s current mayor, would lead with 35.51% of the vote. Nawrocki would trail with 31.73%, while the right-wing Confederation would secure 15.68%, placing third.
However, as no candidate is projected to secure an outright majority, the race would advance to a second round. In this head-to-head scenario, the poll indicates a razor-thin victory for Nawrocki, who would garner 50.6% of the vote, narrowly beating Trzaskowski’s 49.4%. This margin amounts to fewer than 200,000 votes, and undecided voters were not included in the results.
Historically, most polls have favored Trzaskowski by margins of five to ten points. Yet, the Confederation voters—leaning conservative—could play a pivotal role in tipping the scales toward Nawrocki. While many of these voters are likely to back Nawrocki, others might abstain from voting altogether, adding an unpredictable element to the outcome.
If the left-liberal coalition, led by Trzaskowski, clinches the presidency, it would consolidate significant power. With control over parliament and the prime minister’s office already in its grasp, the group could more easily push forward its social and political agenda.
The stakes are high as Poland prepares for this pivotal election, scheduled for May 18, 2025. All eyes are now on how undecided voters and Confederation supporters might influence the final outcome.
