On February 5th, French Prime Minister François Bayrou survived two no-confidence motions put forward by the Left after he bypassed MPs using Article 49.3 of the Constitution to pass the 2025 budget.
The failed motions led to the final adoption of the budget, ending months of financial uncertainty. However, both the Right and Left opposition parties are still hinting at future attempts to censure the government.
The far-left La France Insoumise (LFI) proposed the censure motions, but unlike in December, when a similar motion brought down Michel Barnier’s government, neither the Socialist Party (PS) nor the Rassemblement National (RN) supported them this time.
The PS refrained from supporting the censure after negotiating with Bayrou, securing guarantees like the preservation of 4,000 teaching positions initially set for cuts. This move angered their NFP allies, effectively signaling the end of their coalition. Meanwhile, RN avoided voting for censure, seeing little benefit in toppling the government, especially when the PS’s support ensured its failure. RN president Jordan Bardella explained they didn’t want to risk replacing one Macronist government with another, further delaying the budget decision.
For RN, the focus is now on preparing for potential legislative elections this summer, which they expect to be triggered by another dissolution. They’re aiming for stability until elections and are already selecting candidates.
The PS, however, is not done. After the budget vote, they plan to propose a censure motion targeting Bayrou’s controversial comments about “migratory submersion,” a topic that has ignited strong opposition on both the left and center. This “spontaneous motion of censure,” which uses Article 49.2, differs from the typical Article 49.3, as it can be used for any issue, not just budgetary matters. The PS sees it as a way to punish Bayrou for his stance on immigration, a move that could rally enough MPs to succeed.
The possibility of this censure is concerning for the government. The PS could easily garner support, particularly on a politically charged issue like immigration. The government fears the RN might join the motion simply to destabilize the administration, though aligning on this topic could be tricky for Marine Le Pen’s voters.
For now, Bayrou’s budget has passed, awaiting Senate confirmation, where it’s expected to succeed. Despite this win, Bayrou’s victory doesn’t address France’s deeper issues, leaving much-needed reforms still on hold.
