Trump, Gaza, and countering China

President Trump’s recent announcement that the U.S. would take “long-term ownership” of the Gaza Strip, during a press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, can be interpreted as part of a wider plan to compete with and block the Chinese Belt and Roads initiative, and Chinese ascendency in general.

The proposal envisions relocating the Palestinian population to neighbouring countries such as Egypt and Jordan, redeveloping Gaza into a global economic hub, described by Trump as the “Riviera of the Middle East.” Trump did not provide a legal or logistical framework for this plan, and the announcement has drawn sharp international reactions, being condemned as a form of ethnic cleansing.

Trump’s project builds on Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu’s “Gaza 2035” document, published in late 2023. That framework outlines a phased transformation of Gaza: several phases, spanning many years, would see the strip on the Eastern Mediterranean governed by a Gaza Rehabilitation Authority (GRA) subject to Israeli security oversight.

Gaza would be integrated into the broader regional economy through infrastructure projects, including a free trade zone linking Gaza, Arish, and Sderot. Although the plan mentions local self-government at a future point, given Trump’s proposal to evacuate Gaza, it is doubtful that there will be a sizeable Palestinian presence in the long-run, should the project go forward.

Trump’s proposal and the “Gaza 2035” initiative should be viewed within the broader context of global infrastructure and geopolitical competition. The United States has been advancing the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), a G7-backed initiative launched in 2022 as an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and before PGII, the U.S. introduced the Build Back Better World (B3W) initiative in 2021.

The concept of a “Middle East Corridor” is part of this framework. The India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), announced at the 2023 G20 Summit, exemplifies this strategy by proposing a trade route linking India to Europe via the Middle East, with key transit points in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Jordan, and Israel. Given Israel’s geographical position as a conduit between Asia and Europe, it plays a crucial role in such initiatives.

Trump’s plan for Gaza aligns with long-standing American foreign policy, but the feasibility of such will depend on local dynamics, as key allies like Saudi Arabia, whose NEON project would be crucial to any U.S. led alternative to Chinese routes, cannot collaborate without facing serious popular discontent if Palestinians are seen to be expelled from Gaza. In fact, going forward, the unpalatability of the project to local sensitivities opens up space for China to partner with local states and exert soft-power.

 

 

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