With just ten days to go before the election, the CDU and CSU have gained a point, reaching 32% in the latest ARD “Germany Trend” survey by Infratest Dimap. This marks the Union’s best result so far this year.
The AfD holds steady at 21%, widening its lead over the SPD, which dropped one point to a mere 14%. The Greens are holding their ground with no change in their numbers.
Interestingly, the Left Party is now on track to re-enter the Bundestag. It’s up by a point, hitting 6%, while the BSW faction, which split from it, has gained 0.5%, but at 4.5%, it’s still well below the threshold needed to block legislation. Meanwhile, the FDP remains stuck under the 5% threshold, standing at just 4%.
According to the survey, five factions would make it into the Bundestag, with the CDU and CSU combining for 224 seats. The AfD would see a remarkable rise, securing 152 seats—doubling its current representation. The SPD, on the other hand, is expected to lose 40 seats, dropping to 112, down from its current 207.
With such shifts taking place between the Chancellor Party and the AfD, SPD parliamentary group leader Stephan Brandner raised concerns about the potential outcome on Tuesday. Unlike other surveys, the Union has the flexibility to choose its coalition partner, with both the Greens and SPD offering potential majority options. Each of these alliances would give the Union a solid 336 seats, surpassing the 316-seat threshold for an absolute majority. However, the most robust majority would come from a “black and blue” alliance, with a total of 376 seats—though the Union has ruled out this possibility.
Regarding coalition preferences, both black-green and black-red alliances are projected to reach only 46% of the vote, which would still allow them to form a majority in parliament, thanks to the 9% of votes that wouldn’t be represented due to the blocking clause. The only coalition offering a social majority would be a Union-AfD combination, which would control 53% of the vote.
When it comes to Chancellor candidates, none seem to have the public’s backing. Friedrich Merz (CDU/CSU) has a 34% approval rating, but 56% reject him. Olaf Scholz (SPD) fares worse, with a dismal 26% approval and 67% rejection. Robert Habeck (Greens) follows with 25% approval and 64% rejection, while Alice Weidel’s approval rating is the lowest at 19%, with 71% rejecting her.
