With Germany’s federal election just around the corner, the latest ZDF Politbarometer poll reveals shifting political tides. The Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) have slipped to 28%, while the national populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) is surging, now polling at 21%.
Despite the dip, the CDU/CSU remains ahead of its dismal 2021 performance, where it recorded an all-time low of 24.2%. Still, if these numbers hold, this election could mark its second-worst showing. Meanwhile, the AfD is poised for a historic breakthrough, nearly doubling its previous 10.4% result.
Voter frustration with mainstream parties is shaking up the landscape, benefitting both ends of the spectrum. The leftist Die Linke has climbed to 8%, comfortably clearing the 5% hurdle required to enter the Bundestag. That threshold, however, remains a nail-biter for the Free Democrats (FDP) and the left-leaning nationalist Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), both teetering on the edge.
The CDU/CSU’s path to forming a government looks increasingly uncertain. Its leader, Friedrich Merz, has ruled out cooperation with the AfD, reinforcing his party’s long-standing “firewall” against the national populist movement—though recent events have tested that stance. Last month, CDU politicians relied on AfD votes to push through a stricter immigration policy, stirring controversy.
Discontent with the outgoing SPD-Green-FDP coalition has fueled these political shifts. Economic struggles, immigration debates, and an energy policy that sidelined nuclear power have left many voters disillusioned. The AfD has capitalized on this sentiment, particularly in eastern Germany, where it has become a dominant force.
Adding fuel to the fire, tech mogul Elon Musk recently amplified AfD co-leader Alice Weidel’s message in an X Spaces interview, allowing her to present the party’s views without mainstream media interference. Financial backing has also poured in, with major donors betting on the AfD’s promise to upend the status quo, curb mass migration, cut red tape, and rethink Germany’s energy policies.
As election day looms, the political stakes couldn’t be higher. Whether the CDU/CSU can maintain its lead or if the AfD will continue its meteoric rise remains to be seen.
