Ukraine’s strained relationship with President Donald Trump may hinge on a lucrative but controversial rare earths deal that Kyiv has so far resisted.
According to insiders, Trump’s frustrations with Ukraine aren’t about favoring Russia but stem from Kyiv’s reluctance to accept a U.S. proposal granting American companies 50% ownership of Ukraine’s vast rare earth deposits—resources worth hundreds of billions.
Initially, it was Ukraine that floated the idea of a deal, but Kyiv balked when the final U.S. proposal lacked solid security guarantees. Trump’s team sees the deal as fair compensation for the billions in aid the U.S. has poured into Ukraine. Ukrainian officials, however, argue that any agreement must include ironclad security assurances to prevent future Russian aggression.
Tensions boiled over when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy publicly criticized Trump, a move that backfired. “Bashing Trump only fuels the anti-Ukraine wing of his party,” warned a Republican advisor. Now, with Trump’s peace envoy Keith Kellogg in Kyiv for talks, Ukraine appears to be reconsidering its stance. After their meeting, Zelenskyy signaled openness to a security and investment pact, though he avoided directly mentioning rare earths.
While some Republicans see the deal as a pragmatic way to keep Trump engaged in Ukraine’s security, critics—including European officials—view it as economic coercion at a time when Ukraine has little leverage. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz defended the proposal, calling it “the best security guarantee they could hope for—better than another pallet of ammunition.”
With pressure mounting, Ukraine faces a tough choice: secure Trump’s backing through an economic trade-off or risk losing crucial U.S. support at a critical moment.
