Germany’s latest election, despite protests, terror attacks, and debates over mass immigration, ended in a massive win for the political establishment. A mere 14,000 votes stood between the current outcome and a radically different Bundestag.
Under Germany’s strict 5% threshold, parties failing to hit the mark lose all representation—millions of votes effectively vanish. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) came agonizingly close, securing 4.972% of the vote, but missing the cutoff by a razor-thin margin. Had BSW entered parliament, it would have reshaped coalition dynamics entirely.
Without BSW, the Christian Democrats (CDU) and Social Democrats (SPD) can form a two-party government—simpler, more stable, and free from the need for a third partner. If BSW had made the cut, the CDU would have been forced into tougher negotiations, and with both BSW and AfD in parliament, they could have controlled a third of the seats, potentially wielding a blocking minority.
Wagenknecht insists her party’s future isn’t doomed, but she has hinted at stepping away from politics, leaving BSW’s direction uncertain. No legal challenge has been announced, though BSW MEP Fabio de Masi has raised concerns, warning that the election outcome could end up before Germany’s Constitutional Court. Allegations of irregularities—particularly regarding overseas voters—are already surfacing.
Meanwhile, CDU leader Friedrich Merz wants a coalition settled by Easter, and the SPD appears eager to join. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, however, has ruled out any role other than his current one, refusing to lead talks with the CDU. That gives the SPD the upper hand in negotiations, allowing them to pressure the CDU on key issues—meaning Germany’s economic and immigration crises could deepen.
AfD leader Alice Weidel has expressed willingness to work with the CDU, but with her party shut out of coalition talks, she may have to wait another five years for a shot at real influence.
