Breast cancer diagnoses and deaths are expected to rise significantly worldwide by 2050, with the UK projected to see a 21% increase in cases and a 42% rise in deaths, according to a new analysis by the World Health Organization’s cancer agency.
The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) predicts that globally, one in 20 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime. Cases are set to increase by 38% over the next 25 years, while deaths could surge by 68%, leading to an estimated 3.2 million new cases and 1.1 million deaths annually by 2050.
In the UK, cases are expected to climb from 58,756 in 2022 to 71,006 per year in 2050, with annual deaths rising from 12,122 to 17,261.
“Every minute, four women are diagnosed with breast cancer worldwide and one woman dies from the disease, and these statistics are worsening,” said Dr. Joanne Kim, an IARC scientist and co-author of the study published in Nature Medicine.
Experts cite multiple factors behind the projected increase, including population growth, aging, improved detection, and a rise in known risk factors such as aging, genetic predisposition, and lifestyle habits.
The study highlights that about a quarter of breast cancer cases could be prevented through lifestyle changes, such as reducing alcohol consumption, maintaining a healthy weight, and increasing physical activity.
While diagnosis rates are highest in Australia, New Zealand, North America, and Northern Europe, death rates are most severe in Melanesia, Polynesia, and West Africa. However, advancements in treatment and early detection have led to declining breast cancer mortality rates in 29 of the 46 countries analyzed.
IARC researchers stress that countries can slow or reverse these trends through prevention strategies, early detection programs, and improved treatment access.
