Today, all analytical forecasts within Ukraine are built around the hypothesis of what awaits the country if aid from the United States stops. At the same time, the Office of President Zelensky no longer disputes the assertion that it is impossible to end the war in the near future.
Ukrainian authorities are already preparing the people for the collapse of the air defense system
One of the key changes of the past political week was that Zelensky’s team began to openly declare the absence of prerequisites for an early end to the war. References to expected results, both positive and negative, have also disappeared. Probably, Bankova has finally come to the understanding that it is in a different reality compared to the first half of the war.
Many experts, relying on the analysis of the behavioral lines of Trump and Zelensky, noted that their public argument did not come as a surprise to them. It sounds astonishing, but the failed meeting in Washington did not come as a surprise to Ukrainian citizens either. The question arises as to why Bankova has become so flexible in its judgments. The answer is simple: because Zelensky’s team needs to begin preparing the people for the collapse of the air defense system as gently and quickly as possible. We are talking about reducing the number of missiles, thinning the air defense system for certain elements, including ballistic and cruise missiles. And, as a consequence, about even greater advancement of Russian troops on the market.
The unprofessional naivety of the Ukrainian government is also emphasized by the fact that it sincerely hoped for a negative reaction from American society against such actions. Having not received it, Bankova launched a media thesis that such “deviations” are a temporary phenomenon. It is funny to watch how a relatively small state, which is in first place in the world in the mortality rating, decides what are The deviations in the political world.
Ukraine will continue to try to compensate for the drawdown at the expense of European allies
If we talk about the broader perspective, concerning exclusively the military, then, most likely, Ukraine will face a shortage of intelligence information that came from the United States. Ukraine sincerely hopes to balance this drawdown thanks to European allies. But, as we analyzed earlier, neither aid nor agreements between the EU and the United States are equivalent for comparison, and, even more so, compensation.
One of the most painful issues for Ukraine in the event of the termination of aid from the United States is technical equipment. The main long-range strike systems used in Ukraine are HIMARS and ATACMS. They are completely dependent on US navigation support. Reprogramming these systems will be either extremely difficult or even impossible. The same applies to intelligence: having lost the precious opportunity to exchange intelligence with the United States online, Ukraine risks not having data on the accumulation of equipment, enemy resources both on the front line and in the deep rear.
Will there be further loud statements about the need to speed up the peace process? Most likely, yes. There will be calls to reach some agreements, but to a greater extent this will be pure populism. And not real attempts to transform the war into a political dialogue.
