In Poland, the “Civic Coalition” led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk remains the most supported political group, but the “Confederation” party is rapidly closing the gap and has now surpassed 20% support, edging out the “Law and Justice” party. This shift is highlighted in a recent poll by Opinia24 for RMF FM.
If parliamentary elections were held this Sunday, the “Civic Coalition” would secure 34% of the vote, with the “Law and Justice” party trailing at 26.3%. However, the real change is the rise of the “Confederation” party, which now commands 21.4% support, marking a significant jump.
This growth trend for “Confederation” has been noticeable for several months, with the party increasing by over 7 percentage points since December 2024.
Meanwhile, the “Third Way” is expected to receive 6.7% of the votes, the “New Left” is at 4.8%, and the “Together” party has 2.4%.
The poll also reveals a significant shift in voter demographics. The “Law and Justice” party is losing its hold on the youngest age group, 18-29, and is also seeing a decline in support among men, down to 24% from 28% just a month ago.
Conversely, the “Confederation” party is gaining traction among younger voters, with 54% of 18-29-year-olds now supporting them, up from 35% in February and 29% in January. The party is also becoming more popular among male voters, who now give it 31% support, up from 23% last month.
These trends mirror patterns seen in the ongoing presidential race, where party candidates Karol Nawrocki and Sławomir Mentzen are also in the spotlight.
In the presidential race, the latest Opinia24 poll shows that most Poles would vote for Rafał Trzaskowski in the first round, with 32% support. The battle for second place, however, is heating up, with Karol Nawrocki, the “PiS”-backed candidate, holding 19.5% of the vote, while Sławomir Mentzen of the “Confederation” is close behind with 18.9%.
