Researchers at University College London analyzed smoking data from over 350,000 adults in England over an 18-year period.
The study found that while the overall proportion of adults who smoke cigarettes, pipes, cigars, or other forms of tobacco has decreased from 25.3% in 2006 to 16.5% in 2024, progress has stalled since 2020, and smoking rates are increasing in some areas.
The study, published in the journal Addiction, found a 10% increase in smoking rates in southern England between 2020 and 2024. In contrast, smoking rates decreased by 9.7% in the north during the same period.
Research also indicated that women have been smoking more, while the biggest declines in smoking have been seen among younger adults, with little change in older age groups. The increase in relapses, despite more people trying and successfully quitting, suggests a rising trend of people returning to smoking.
The south-west saw the largest increase in smoking rates, which rose by 17% to 18.7% between 2020 and 2024. Rates in the south-east and London also increased by 9% and 8%, respectively.
Extrapolating these findings for the entire population suggests that around 7.5 million adults in England smoke. Of these, 3.3 million live in London, the south-east, and the south-west, representing nearly 400,000 more smokers than in 2020. In contrast, the north of England now has 2 million smokers—160,000 fewer than in 2020.
Over the past 18 years, smoking rates in the north have nearly halved, dropping from 28.8% to 15.8%, now lower than in the south. Dr. Sarah Jackson, lead author of the study from the UCL Institute of Epidemiology and Health Care, attributed this decline to the concentration of tobacco control programs in northern regions. She emphasized, “It’s vital that stop smoking services are made easily and equally available across the country, so that everyone – wherever they live – can access the right tools to quit for good.”
However, some experts express concern that cuts to integrated commissioning boards (ICBs), which fund services like inpatient tobacco treatment, could hinder further progress.
