A recent study conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) for the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (MPSV) reveals that up to 70% of Ukrainian refugees who arrived in the Czech Republic may stay permanently, which amounts to over 260,000 people.
The study, which also involved the Central European branch of the Aspen Institute, suggests that, with the inclusion of these refugees, the Czech Republic could see about 1.36 million foreign residents within the next decade.
As of the end of March, the Ministry of the Interior reported 364,600 refugees from Ukraine with temporary protection in the country, in addition to 708,700 other foreign nationals with residence permits, bringing the total number of foreign residents to 1.07 million.
“Currently, we assume that about 70% of these people (refugees from Ukraine) will likely remain in the Czech Republic after 2035,” the study’s authors stated. However, they also noted that this projection depends on the ongoing developments in Ukraine.
The study highlights the positive impact of the influx of refugees on the Czech labor market, which has been facing a long-term worker shortage. “The influx of labor has significantly alleviated the shortage of workers in certain sectors, particularly in construction, industry, and services… Refugees have also brought new types of consumer demand to the Czech economy, which has partially stimulated some market segments,” the study reports. However, challenges to integration remain, including language barriers and difficulties in having qualifications and experience recognized. The study also notes the pressure this population has placed on social and healthcare systems.
By the end of March, the Ministry of the Interior registered 364,602 refugees under temporary protection, alongside 330,283 other foreign residents. Of these, 378,418 may remain in the country permanently. In total, over 1.07 million foreigners were living in the Czech Republic by the first quarter of the year. Projections suggest that by 2030, this number could approach 1.19 million, and by 2035, it may rise to 1.36 million, with 260,000 of these being Ukrainian refugees who will likely stay long-term. Their children are expected to gradually enter the Czech labor market.
“We expect the number of foreigners in the Czech Republic to grow. We need this. Even with an increase in their number, we will still have a shortage of workers in the economy,” said Tomáš Wiedermann, a partner at BCG and one of the study’s authors, during the study’s presentation this week.
In addition to the refugees, the Czech Republic currently hosts 90,600 Ukrainians with temporary residence permits and another 111,700 who have qualified for permanent residence status. The study anticipates the number of Ukrainian immigrants in the country will continue to rise, potentially reaching 237,000 in the next decade.
