The Ukrainian government, together with the European Commission, is working to avoid reverting to the trade regime that was in place before 2022.
If the EU does not adopt a new decision by June 5, the provisions of the Association Agreement will automatically come back into effect—something that, according to experts, could significantly reduce Ukraine’s exports to the European Union.
In such a case, the losses to the Ukrainian economy are estimated at $1.5 billion, or nearly 4% of total exports, according to research by Veronika Movchan (Institute for Economic Research) and Ricardo Giucci (Berlin Economics). However, the European Commission firmly supports maintaining and improving the current trade regime.
Specifically, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen assured Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal during talks on April 9 that the new trade parameters between Ukraine and the EU would be better than those in place before 2022.
The goal is to achieve this by revising the current free trade regime in accordance with Article 29 of the Association Agreement.
The Ukrainian side emphasizes that the format of the future agreement is not essential. The main priority is to preserve and strengthen access for Ukrainian goods to the European market.
“It doesn’t really matter to us under which cover the future trade regime between Ukraine and the EU is outlined. Whether it’s autonomous trade preferences, as has been the case so far, or a free trade regime expanded under Article 29—for us, the result is what matters, not the ‘wrapping’,” the government stated.
